There’s an outlandish Polymarket wager that asks, “Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?” It looks like a straightforward win — in any case, the chances are certainly stacked towards one other resurrection.
Nonetheless, there are some who assume it would truly be extra worthwhile to wager on the prophet making a comeback.
AI alignment researcher Eric Neyman needed to know why somebody would wager on Jesus Christ’s return by way of Polymarket. In a weblog printed final March, he dominated out Christian zealots, shopping for it for the memes, and betting on a decision mistake on Polymarket’s finish.
Neyman’s pal Jesse Richardson, a Polymarket dealer, put ahead a “Time Value of Money” concept as an alternative.
This hypothesised that “Yes” betters are probably holding out for the “No” betters to get tired of ready for his or her measly end-of-year returns, at present at 2.9%, or 97.1% odds.
As a way to make $29,000 in revenue, you’d need to wager $971,000 on “No” and wait until the top of the 12 months.
Learn extra: Crypto gamblers debate fart whereas Trump releases sizzling air
Richardson thinks the “No” betters could promote their positions to regain entry to their funds when extra attention-grabbing markets seem for them to gamble on.
If these “No” betters promote, the value of the “Yes” will improve and, as such, give the “Yes” betters an opportunity of a better return, probably doubling the chances from 3% to six%.
Neyman wrote, “The Yes traders are betting that the time value of Polymarket cash will go up unexpectedly: that other traders will be short on cash to place bets with, and will at some point be willing to pay a premium to free up the cash that they spent betting against Jesus.”
Due to this, Neyman notes that if the market have been positioned in 2024, the “Yes” odds could have been increased as there have been extra prediction markets on supply.
As for now, he stated, “There’s not much interesting stuff happening on Polymarket.”
Learn extra: DOGE lies break Polymarket prediction market
He concluded, “Jesus Christ will probably return in an election year (at least if you believe the prediction markets)!”
On the time of Neyman’s article, the Christ market had roughly $100,000 in quantity, however now has over $500,000.
It’s price noting that the “odds” of the son of God returning are based mostly on binary choices gamblers inserting bets on whether or not or not UMA token holders would attest to Jesus Christ’s reported return.
Obtained a tip? Ship us an electronic mail securely by way of Protos Leaks. For extra knowledgeable information, observe us on X, Bluesky, and Google Information, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.