Solana skilled a short-lived rally following affirmation that the first-ever Solana ETF that includes staking capabilities is scheduled to launch on July 2, 2025.
In response to information from crypto.information, Solana (SOL) surged practically 6% to an intraday excessive of $158.30 on Monday earlier than paring features and settling round $152.60 at press time. Regardless of the retracement, the token stays roughly 44% above its year-to-date low, with a present market capitalization exceeding $81.6 billion.
SOL’s rally was pushed by renewed investor hype surrounding the upcoming exchange-traded fund launch set to go dwell tomorrow. The product, branded because the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF, would be the first within the U.S. to supply on-chain staking rewards alongside spot value publicity. It marks a notable departure from earlier crypto ETFs which have largely excluded staking options because of regulatory and structural constraints.
Nonetheless, the early pleasure pale rapidly as traders started to mood their expectations about how profitable the brand new Solana ETF may be.
A key cause for this skepticism is the comparatively small measurement of Grayscale’s Solana Belief (GSOL), which has been round for over 43 months however solely manages about $75 million in property, a stark distinction to Grayscale’s Ethereum Belief (ETHE) which had amassed $10 billion in property only a month earlier than the spot Ethereum ETF launched in July 2024.
Merchants appear more and more unsure, as derivatives information additionally factors to weakening momentum for the sixth-largest crypto asset by market cap.
Solana’s perpetual futures market on Hyperliquid reveals a cautious stance amongst merchants. Whereas lengthy positions barely outweigh shorts in quantity, the revenue lies with the bears; that’s, shorts are at the moment up by over $6.71 million, whereas longs are collectively down greater than $707,000.
This disparity means that many longs purchased in in the course of the ETF hype and are actually underwater, reinforcing a cautious near-term outlook.
Additional, the market cap of stablecoins on the Solana community has fallen from $13 billion in April to round $10.5 billion as of press time, indicating a notable decline in on-chain liquidity and lowered demand for transactional exercise inside the ecosystem.
On high of that, regardless of the current hype surrounding Solana memecoins, the community’s income has declined by over 90% since January.
All these elements might possible proceed to weigh on Solana’s efficiency regardless of the ETF information.
Solana value evaluation
On the 1-day/USDT chart, Solana (SOL) is pulling again towards the descending trendline it broke earlier, the identical stage that sparked as we speak’s rally. If it falls again under this line, it might sign a development reversal and produce again bearish momentum.
Value motion has additionally slipped under the 50-day easy shifting common, a generally noticed dynamic help stage. This breakdown alerts fading short-term power and provides to the bearish technical outlook.
The Relative Energy Index, which initially rose to 55 after the ETF information broke, has fallen again to 51 on the time of writing, indicating that the preliminary shopping for strain has pale.
Given these technical alerts, SOL seems poised to retest help at $143.10, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement stage. A decisive break under this stage might open the trail towards deeper draw back, with the subsequent key help resting at $126.48, its native low from final month.
A bearish overhang for SOL traders is that over $585 million value of SOL will likely be unstaked within the subsequent two months, which might doubtlessly enhance promoting strain and weigh additional on value efficiency.
Nonetheless, in a market the place notion usually outweighs fundamentals, robust day-one flows into REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF might override technical weak point and drive renewed accumulation.
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